News Release| Pat Brown Institute; Cal State L.A.

For more information, contact:

Raphael Sonenshein, Director, Pat Brown Institute, 323-343-3770

Susan Pinkus, SH Pinkus Research Associates, 323-650-3107 

Pat Brown Institute’s Los Angeles Mayoral Race Poll Shows ‘Virtual Tie’

Los Angeles, CA -- With the May 21 mayoral election less than two weeks away, a newly released The Edmund G. Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs (PBI) Poll of 674 likely voters shows a very competitive race. The telephone survey was conducted from April 29-May 7, 2013. The poll shows a virtual tie between the two candidates (46 percent for Wendy Greuel vs. 45 percent for Eric Garcetti, with nine percent undecided). Full details of the poll including other races and issues will be released on Monday, May 13. 

Turnout is expected to be low, which makes the election volatile and hard to predict,” said Raphael Sonenshein, Director Pat Brown Institute. Any significant shift in participation by key electoral groups could swing the outcome. The composition of the groups turning out is just as important as the level of turnout itself.” 

Located on the Cal State L.A. campus, PBIs poll shows Garcetti is leading among Latinos and Asian-Americans, who make up 29 percent and 9 percent of the electorate, respectively. Greuel has a large lead among African-Americans and is ahead among whites. The poll also shows a gender gap, with women more than 10 points more for Greuel than for Garcetti.  Regardless of whom they prefer, half of the voters believe Garcetti will win the election, including 27 percent of Greuel’s voters. 

More voters say that Garcetti, by a slight margin, will be the better candidate in providing leadership and fighting crime, while voters prefer Greuel for handling education in the schools and as a candidate who cares about people like me”. 

The campaign charges made by each candidate against his or her opponent seem to have made an impression. The most cited negative by likely voters against Greuel is that she is too close to special interests and unions, and the most noted criticism of Garcetti is that he cannot be trusted. Both charges have appeared in television ads. In a low turnout, low information election, television and other advertising may play a major role in shaping voting perception.

 

Pat Brown Institute
2013 Los Angeles Mayoral Election Poll Data
(Read Horizontally)

 

                        Selected Demographic Groups:

 

                                                Garcetti Voters      Greuel Voters

                                                        (45%)                      (46%)


                                  Gender:

Male (52%)

51%

40%

Female (48%)

38%

53%

 

            Race:

                                 White (42%)                    42%                       53%

                         African-Americans(12%) 31%                      63%                          Latinos (29%)                  48%                       36%
                         Asians*(9%)                    69%                       22%
                                                                                    *(small base)  

            Born in U.S.:

Born in U.S. (77%)

41%

50%

Not born in U.S. (20%)

58%

31%

 

            Union:

Union Household (19%)

38%

52%

Not Union HH (76%)

47%

44%

 

          Who will win election?

Garcetti (51%)

79%

27%

Greuel (31%)

9%

55%

 

 

                        Issue Evaluations:

 

                        Will keep city safe from crime
                        Garcetti 39%
                        Greuel 34%

 

                          Will do a better job in public schools
                          Garcetti 32%
                          Greuel 42%

 

                          Cares more about people like me
                          Garcetti 31%
                          Greuel 43%

                          Has best leadership qualities
                          Garcetti 42%
                          Greuel 39% 

 

 

How the Poll Was Conducted

 

The Pat Brown Institute (PBI) Poll, housed at California State University, Los Angeles,

contacted 1,705 adults in the city of Los Angeles by telephone April 29-May 7, 2013. Among them were 904 registered voters of whom 674 were deemed likely to vote in the May 21st runoff election for mayor. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city, and random digit dialing techniques allowed listed and unlisted numbers to be contacted. Multiple attempts were made to contact each number.  Adults in the sample were weighted slightly to conform with their respective census proportions by sex, ethnicity, age, education, city region, and cell phone usage. The margin of sampling error for likely voters is +/-4  points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results may also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.  Interviews and data collection were conducted by Interviewing Service of America, Van Nuys, California under the overall direction of Susan Pinkus, PBI Polling Consultant. While Asian American voters were interviewed and are included as part of the overall results in this poll, they are too small a subgroup of the sample to be examined in detail. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

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