Last updated May 13, 1996.

Introduction to Actuarial Methods

Actuarial Discounting | Examples | Tables

Actuarial Estimates and Discounting

How much should members of a pool put aside today to pay a specified benefit to those who experience a specified future event? The answer depends on what the funds set aside can earn and on how many members will share in the proceeds of the fund.

Discounting for interest

Earnings of a fund are estimated in terms of an interest rate. For example, if funds will earn 7% per year, then $100 funded today will grow to $107 in one year and, with compounding of interest, to $140 in five years. Put the other way around, to have $140 in five years, fund $100 today at 7%. Going from $140 to $100 is called discounting for interest.

Discounting for survivorship

Example: Three coworkers age 65 and just retired contribute $100 apiece to a 70-th birthday fund. Only two survive to age 70. The two share $300 or $150 each. In effect $150 per person at age 70 has been discounted by survivorship to $100 at age 65.

In practice discounting for survivorship is based on experience with large groups of people. Survivorship under a pension plan involves turnover and disability as well as mortality. Estimates of mortality are nowadays stated in terms of "life tables".

Comparative Life Tables

source Ulpianus Halley Karlsruhe MGA    MIA 
year:   230    1693    1864    1971    1983 
age 	 	 	 	 	 
20    1,000   1,000   1,000   1,000   1,000 
25	893	948	956	997	997 
30 	821 	888 	916 	994 	994 
35 	747 	819 	874 	989 	990 
40 	635 	744 	829 	983 	985 
45 	635 	664 	777 	973 	976 
50 	635 	579 	718 	955 	962 
55 	353 	488 	647 	924 	939 
60 	202 	405 	559 	878 	907 
65 	81 	321 	454 	810 	863 
70 	27 	237 	337 	708 	797 
75 	9 	147 	216 	566 	697 
80 	3 	69 	112 	401 	559 
85 	1 	0 	40 	231 	390 

Examples

Pure Endowment

Value at age 65 of $100 payable at age 70 if the individual is still living. By "value" we mean the present value per present individual of the future benefit. This value would be the same as a premium without administrative cost and profit.

The general actuarial rule is:

Present Value equals Future Value Actuarially Discounted

Step 1: Apply the general rule to a large group of lives.

(value) l[65] = ($100) ( l[70] v^(70-65) )

Step 2: Divide both sides by l[65] and use the definition D[x] = l[x] v^(x).

value = ($100) (D[70] / D[65])

Step 3: Assume MIA 1983 and 8% interest

value = ($100) (3,527.554 / 5,666.386) = $62.25

Pension Funding

Example 1

What annual payment should be made from age 30 through age 64 to fund an annual pension of $50,000 starting at age 65?

Step 1. Find the value at age 65 of a life annuity of $50,000.

Step 1.1: Discount from older age x to age 65

(value of pension paid at age x) l[65] = $50,000 ( l[x] v^(x-65) )

Step 1.2: Divide both sides by l[65] and use the definition D[x] = l[x] v^(x).

value of pension paid at age x = $50,000 ( D[x] / D[65] )

Step 1.3: Sum for all years of life

total pension value at age 65 = Sum[from x=65 to omega] $50,000 ( D[x] / D[65] )

Step 1.4: Use the definition N[x] = Sum[from x to omega] D[x].

total pension value at age 65 = ($50,000) ( N[65] / D[65] )

Step 2. Find the value at age 65 of payments made at younger ages.

Step 2.1: The actuarial future value at age 65 of a payment made at younger age x is found from

payment l[x] = (future value) ( l[65] v^(65 - x) )

Step 2.2: Use the definition of D[x] and solve for the future value.

future value = payment ( D[x] / D[65] )

Step 2.3: Sum for all working years.

total value at age 65 of payments = (payment) ( Sum[from x=30 to 64] D[x] / D[65] )

Step 2.4: Use the definition of N[x] twice.

total value at age 65 of payments = (payment)(N[30] - N[65]) / D[65]

Step 3. Equate the value of the payments and the value of the pension.

Step 3.1: At age 65

(payment) ( N[30] - N[65]) / D[65] ) = $50,000 ( N[65] / D[65] )

Step 3.2: Solve for the payment.

payment = $50,000 ( N[65] / (N[30] - N[65]) )

Step 3.3: Assume MIA 1983 and 8% interest.

payment = ($50,000) (53,154) / (1,265,215 - 53,154) = ($50,000) (.04385) = $2,193

Summary: Starting at age 30, pay $2,193 a year up through age 64. Receive $50,000 a year starting at age 65 for as long as you live. This assumes no administrative costs and no extra benefits. For example, if you die before age 65, your estate receives nothing.

Life Insurance

Example 1

Term Life for One Year at Age 30. Those who die, do so exactly at age 31.

Step 1. Present value of premiums = (premium) l[30]

Step 2. Present value of total benefits paid = ($100,000) (l[30]-l[31]) (v)

Step 3. Equate and Solve.

premium = ($100,000) {(l[30] - l[31])/l[30]} (v) = ($100,000)(.000850) (.926) = $78.80

Example 2

Term Life for One Year at Age 30. Those who die, do so evenly throughout the year.

Step 1. Present value of premiums = (premium) l[30]

Step 2. Present value of total benefits paid = ($100,000) (l[30]-l[31]) (ln(1.08)/(.08))

Step 3. Equate and Solve. premium = ($100,000) (.000850) (.962) = $81.80

Comment: When people die throughout the year, the insurance fund has less time to earn more money from the premiums paid at the start. That forces the premium higher.

Example 3

Whole Life at Age 30. Net Single Premium (NSP), that is, only one premium is paid.

Step 1. Present value of premiums = (premium) l[30]

Step 2. Present value of total benefits paid

= Sum[from x=30 to omega] ( ($100,000) (l[x]-l[x+1]) v^(x-29) )

Step 3. Equate and Solve.

premium = ($100,000) { (vN[30] - N[31]) / D[30] }
= ($100,000) {((1,265,215/1.08) - 1,167,180) / 98,035.64}
= $4,401.84

Example 4

Whole Life at Age 30. Annual premium paid at ages 30 through 64.

Step 1. Present value of premiums

= Sum[from x=30 to 64] ( (premium) l[x] v^(x-30) )

Step 2. Present value of total benefits paid

Sum[from x=30 to omega] ( ($100,000) (l[x]-l[x+1]) v^(x-29) )

Step 3. Equate and Solve.

premium = ($100,000){ (vN[30] - N[31]) / (N[30] - N[65])}
= ($100,000) { ((1,265,215/1.08) - 1,167,180) / (1,265,215 - 53,153.92) }
= $356.04

Tables

  • FIA 1983
  • MIA 1983

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