California State University, Los Angeles
Center for Newly Independent States Studies (CNISS)
offers a Distance Learning course
QUANTITATIVE DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES
By Dr. Stephen K. Pollard
1 9 9 7


Course ID: ST3
COURSE DESCRIPTION
This course employs material written by Professor Stephen Pollard of the Department of Economics and Statistics, California State University, Los Angeles. It is designed for current managers and professionals and those in training for such careers. The materials assume at least a basic knowledge of algebra, graphs and Excel 5.0 or 7.0. No prior knowledge of optimization techniques are required.
OBJECTIVE OF COURSE
This course is designed to familiarize participants with additional concepts and tools used by today's business managers in making effective decisions at the firm level. Participants will also acquire techniques that will enhance the profitability of business operations.
INSTRUCTOR
The instructor for this course is Dr. Stephen K. Pollard, Director of the Bureau of Business and Economics Research and Professor of Economics and Statistics in the School of Business and Economics, California State University, Los Angeles. Professor Pollard has taught both graduate and undergraduate courses in the areas of Statistics, Mathematical Economics, Econometrics, Optimization Methods, and Forecasting. Professor Pollard has over 50 journal articles and research reports in the fields of applied econometrics, international finance, economic development, finance, and futures markets. Professor Pollard has extensive international experience having worked in 12 different countries for USAID, IFAD, FAO, USDA, and WOCCU. He has been at California State University, Los Angeles since 1982. He took is B.A. in Economics with Honors from Sonoma State College and his M.S. and Ph.D. from The Ohio State University.
COURSE ORGANIZATION

Week 1

Chapter 1: Mathematical Models as Management Tools

  • Deterministic Models
  • Probabilistic Models
    • 1. Spreadsheet Models Assignment 1: Self Test #1, Quiz #1. These are available on the Web site. Be aware of the time allocated for Quiz #1. Homework #1 must be done on Excel. Answers must be sent in using Email and attaching the Excel file you created.

    Weeks 2-4

    Chapter 2: Mathematical Programming

  • Linear Programming
  • Maximization Techniques
    • 2. Minimization Techniques
  • Product Mixes
    • 3. Blending Problems
    4. Scheduling Models
    5. Network Flow Models
  • Sensitivity Analysis
    • Assignment 2: Self-Test #2, Quiz #2, Homework #2 must be done on Excel. Answers must be sent in using Email and attaching the Excel file you created.

    Weeks 5-6

    Chapter 3: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

  • Non-Bayesian Techniques
  • Bayesian Techniques
    • 6. Use of Sampling Information
  • Quality Decisions
    • Assignment 3: Self-Test #3, Quiz #3, Homework #3 must be done on Excel. Answers must be sent in using Email and attaching the Excel file you created.

    Week 7

    Chapter 4: Waiting Lines

  • Waiting Lines
    • 7. Applications of Waiting Line Models
    8. Model selection
  • Economic Analysis
    • Assignment 4: Self-Test #4, Quiz #4, Homework #4 must be done on Excel. Answers must be sent in using Email and attaching the Excel file you created.

    Weeks 8

    Chapter 5: Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Simulation Principles
    • 9. Accuracy
    10. Random Numbers
    11. Applications
    Assignment 5: Self-Test #5, Quiz #5, Homework #5 must be done on Excel. Answers must be sent in using Email and attaching the Excel file you created.

    Week 9-10

    Chapter 6: Forecasting

  • Long Range Forecasts
  • Short Term Forecasts
    • 12. Autocorrelation and Autoregression
    13. Exponential Smoothing
    14. Seasonality
    Assignment 6: Self-Test #6, Quiz #6, Homework #6 can be done using the interactive spreadsheets on the WEB and Excel. Answers must be sent in using Email and attaching the Excel file you created.
    There will be a final exam after week 10.
    GRADES
    Grades are determined as follows: 6 quizzes, 10 points each, 6 homework assignments 20 points each, final exam 100 points. Total points: 280.
    COURSE ADMINISTRATION
    The course involves six major activities: registration, an initial class meeting, course study segments, obtaining and responding to examination questions, an interactive questions/answers, and obtaining a grade and a certificate of completion. Details on each will be supplied with the registration verification.

    Registration

    Announcements and registration forms can be obtained from participating universities/organizations. Completed registration forms with payment will be returned to the designated course coordinator at the participating university/organization. Confirmation of registration with appropriate course material will then be given to the student.

    Initial Class Meeting

    Course participants will meet as a group with the course coordinator at each participating university/organization. During the meeting, the Internet material will be distributed and demonstrated; and selfstudy, testing, and grading approaches will be explained.

    SelfStudy Sessions

    Each of the chapters will be studied and any questions will be sent to the course instructor.

    Examination Questions

    A course coordinator will request examination questions via e-mail. Students will answer questions and return them for grading to the instructor. The student grades and any instructor comments will be returned to the course coordinator or to a student.

    Question/Answer Methodology

    Students are encouraged to submit comments and questions to the course instructor.

    Grades and Certificates of Completion

    Course grades and certificates of completion will be forwarded to the course coordinator who will distribute them to the students.
    To apply, please send your e-mail to:

    cniss@calstatela.edu

    COURSES
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